How well do species distribution models predict occurrences in exotic ranges?

نویسندگان

چکیده

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used predictive tools to forecast potential biological invasions. However, the reliability of SDMs extrapolated exotic ranges remains understudied, with most analyses restricted few species and equivocal results. We examine spatial transferability for 647 non-indigenous across 1,867 invaded ranges, identify what factors may help differentiate success from failure. Location Global. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Six hundred forty-seven terrestrial species; eight taxonomic classes. Methods performed a large-scale assessment using two modelling approaches: generalized additive (GAMs) MaxEnt. fitted on native them ranges. examined influence general related invasions transferability. Results Despite both approaches performing well in range fitting, we observed moderate low average (mean area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] ~ .7) when extrapolating their Transferability differed between classes continents was positively influenced by performance model environmental generalism range, year first record. Models worse greater coverage gross domestic product number occurrences geographic distance islands. Main conclusions After controlling sampling bias, half were only weakly predictive, which should affect how SDM-based forecasts interpreted. Performance based characteristics data, species, can suggest be reliable cautious. These considerations touch directly upon use management discuss possible mechanisms these findings.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Global Ecology and Biogeography

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1466-8238', '1466-822X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13482